Event predictions from exercise testing

Competitions and races


Competitive sports is defined by the participation. But even if your clients don't participate in competitions, a prediction of virtual performances are most interesting. Such kind of information not only improves strategic possibilities for a later participation, race predictions are a much better reference to intpret the results of laboratory exercise testings.

Furthermore, a good predictive power improves the relevance and validity of the related training guidance. This applies not only for competitive athletes, but also for recreational or rehabilitative types of sports.

Scientific evaluation

The algorithms that are implemented in Ergonizer are scientifically evaluated and documented (scientific references). E.g., we could show that a good prediction for marathon races can be realized:

Surprisingly exact race predictions

Ergonizer in the basic version provides predictions for a set of race events from treadmill testing.

Race predictions for running events

From treadmill or field running tests with lactate measurements:
  • Marathon
  • Half marathon
  • 10,000m
  • 5,000m
  • Cooper-Test (12 min)
  • 1,500m

    (Precision: r2 = 0.94)
    (Precision: r2 = 0.92)
    (Precision: r2 = 0.90)
    (Precision: r2 = 0.91)
    (Precision: r2 = 0.92)
    (Precision: r2 = 0.90)

Race predictions for bicycling

From bicycle ergometer tests with lactate measurements:
  • Uphill time-trial onto the Schauinsland near Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)
    (770 altitude meters on 11.5 km distance: Schauinslandkönig)
    with heavy or light equipment

Predicted race time

Zoom in


Critical-power-curve prediction With our outstanding critical-power-prediction module, you get predictions about the maximum sustainable performance for all distances or exercise durations you want (from 100m up to 100K running distance or 20 seconds to 7 hours cycling duration).

Example: Marathon

Race predictions marathon

In the left panel, predicted race velocities are shown versus the actual race velocities of 321 marathon runners. Race predictions marathon example The measurement error is about ±5 minutes also for less fit runners.

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Example screenshot for running

Beispiel Rad mit Custom-Logo

Performance prediction for a marathon race

Highly exact predictions of coming competitions in running are really helpful, especially for the longer race distances: You never will be able to make a test race to check what you can perform in a marathon race. Ergonizer Software forecasts a realistic performance to prevent over- or underpacing.

Percentile calculation

The Calculation of percentiles for fitness measures is an outstanding special feature of Ergonizer Software. Gaussian distribution curves from the reference on a variety of comparison groups are integrated to our software.

Percentile function